The spate of recent polling seems to be settling into a pattern. Bryan Palmer writes, "This gives an average of 58.25 for Labor and 41.75 per cent for the Coalition." with the suggestion to plug them into his election calculator.
A uniform 11% swing means a world of hurt for the Liberal Party in the House of Representatives.
A uniform 11% swing means a world of hurt for the Liberal Party in the House of Representatives. I hope that doesn't happen as I prefer all chambers of government to be permanently and constantly competitive. Unfortunately the slow cycles of change in government that happens in Westminster systems in Australia at the national and state level means that if Labor get in at the national they have every reason to expect they will hold government for at least nine years. Once a government gets in, it is rare that the next elections are competitive. Incumbent advantage counts.
