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  • Sri Lanka's Central Bank Governor claimed his nation had 7.5% growth during the heaviest fighting in the civil war.

    I wonder how Iraq's economy has grown in last 5 years?
    • cam . # .

      Sri Lanka:

      Foreign investors are souring on Sri Lanka as the war drags on. Potential foreign investment lost during the period of war from 1984 to 1996 amounted to 71 percent of Sri Lanka's gross domestic product in 1996, according to a study by the Colombo-based Institute of Policy Studies.

      ...

      Meanwhile, the war's direct economic cost has been enormous. Over the course of the conflict the Sri Lankan army has grown from a few more than 6,000 soldiers in the early 1980s to a force of 150,000 today. Direct expenditure on defense has risen from 1.3 percent of gross domestic product in 1980 to between 4 percent and 6 percent in recent years.

      Estimates for the total price tag of the war vary. The Institute of Policy Studies reckons the cost of the war from 1984-1996 as nearly equivalent in value to two years of the entire nation's economic activity.

      The Central Bank of Sri Lanka estimates that the conflict has reduced the country's economic activity by 2 to 3 percentage points per year.

      Sri Lanka has liberalised their economy over that period, so a lot of the gains are structural, potential gains from that liberalisation are being eroded by the conflict. And here:

      Apart from a boost to the overall economy of the country, the North and Eastern parts of the country, too, are likely to benefit from stability and peace. Statistics show that the cease-fire period has seen on average a growth rate of 10-12% for the Northern and Eastern provinces compared to 3-4% rate prior to the cease-fire.

      Some info on Iraq from 2003:

      Iraq's economy will shrink 22% this year, having fallen 21% in 2002 and 12% in 2001, the United Nations and the World Bank have estimated.

      and:

      Iraq's $42 billion economy continues to be hobbled by rampant unemployment, sluggish growth, and insufficient oil revenue. Joblessness is anywhere between 30 and 50 percent, while a private sector has failed to materialize. "Of the nearly $20 billion of U.S. appropriated funds to reconstruct Iraq, only $805 million was directed toward jump-starting the private sector," write Johanna Mendelson-Forman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Merriam Mashatt of the U.S. Institute of Peace. Meanwhile, economic growth in Iraq remains around 4 percent, according to the World Bank, though estimates vary. And revenue from oil production - whose monthly levels of roughly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) falls short of the 2.5 million bpd target - is about $3 billion per month, a pittance given Iraq's vast, though undeveloped, oil reserves.

      A state of emergency and coup are very obvious indicators of political instability and potential arbitrary governance. This scares of people and capital.
      'Sworn to no party, and of no sect am I.' Frederick Vosper's republican motto.