Democracy: I think the Hong Kong elections don\'t include a strict majority of appointees, but a number of rotten boroughs, for unusual electorates representing business interests, get the pro-Beijing parties over the line.
I think a democratic Taiwan does put pressure on One China. In terms of the One China policies of world powers, a rich, democratic, self-governing Taiwan does put mostly moral pressure on the rich world. Moral pressure counts for a bit but not much, see East Timor. Especially now that a market-based Chinese economy makes cool stuff that we can buy.
For China itself, the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau are supposed to be the model for future integration with Taiwan. They PRC leadership have certainly restrained themselves from sending the tanks in, just like they have for normal Chinese cities over the same time period. They haven\'t scared the money away, and creating a stable environment where people can prosper is certainly a duty of government.
Beyond that their scorecard is poor. Their Chief Executive is unpopular, probably inherently - he must have one of the worst jobs in the world. They tried to muscle through a fairly vicious suppression law, with press muzzling and detention, targeted at Falun Gong and the other perennially unfashionable causes. To their credit they backed off in the face of mass protests.
The big problem in HK and Macau is that governments everywhere are extremely reluctant to let go of their existing powers. Hong Kong got its elections very late - rather a conspicuous failure of late British colonial policy. Now the Chinese Communist Party is supposed to underwrite the transition to fuller democracy, and their instincts or affection for it isn\'t that great.
So far as I can tell the party line on democracy is that it\'s messy and fractious. Nice to have when you\'re rich but a bit dangerous for now. My students were pretty interested in the US election when I talked about it. Bush wasn\'t very popular.
Compared to Hong Kong, Taiwan\'s democracy is very robust and energetic. And messy too, the recent election was extremely close, and involved an assassination attempt on the President. It was the sort of election to CCP officials\' hearts flutter and thank Mao they don\'t allow other parties at home. On the other side of the strait, Taiwan has to be asking itself: if China won\'t let Hong Kong have a real parliament, are they really going to let us have a real army?
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