oil spill in the gulf

This is originally from the boston.com big picture series but was posted on reddit with the caption; "What now BP?". It is a good question. Our mastery of technology on a grand scale means when it goes wrong it can do drastic damage to the world around us. Through knowledge of nuclear science we can destroy the world multiple times over; however, because we are a moral species we have not done that.

This isn't the first large oil spill, but since it was in the US, with its ability to bring mass and micro media to bear and then broadcast it around the world it is one of the more prominent. Because of this spill we discovered that there are other instances like this around the world, and that during the Soviet era when the Russians encountered this problem they sealed the drill holes with nukes. Which makes you shudder at the brutal nature of Soviet engineering.

What now BP is a good question. Our demand for oil isn't changing. New technologies in batteries are promising but the problem the Hybrid has solved is traffic lights, stop signs and give way signs. It hasn't changed the nature of car propulsion. Batteries are still an expensive and weak technology which at least throws power generation back into centralized plants. Not that transportation is the largest user of oil anyway.
This is a heat map of gasoline costs as a percentage of income. The hardest hit areas are around the 10% of income mark.

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adam : It was not without protest. There were riots.

I think it was the right decision, and it did not bring down the government, but Indonesians were never likely to simply take the end of a 30 year tax break on the chin.

cam : Pundits like Zakaria argue that this maybe better done by a strong arm dictator who is enforcing capitalism; ie Pinochet-style, but in this instance the collective recognition of it being the right policy meant that liberal democracy handled it well.

I wonder why many assume that liberal democracy is often best added after capitalism when a strong arm has finished implementing those policies.

There is that individual wealth threshold that Zakaria quoted, IIRC it is about 3K per capita, where liberal democracy becomes more stable after that is reached.

Don't know.
This is a blame the government and oil companies type of op-ed, however it has some interesting figures in it.

In January of this year, the U.S. used 4% less petroleum than we did a year ago. (Oil demand was down 3.2% in February.) Furthermore, demand has been falling slowly since July of last year.

In 2003 I payed $1.50 USD a gallon now I am paying $3.50 a gallon. The price increase was both was sudden and constant. It was blamed on a number of issues, Katrina, Iraq, China, India, tornadoes, vacation driving, you name it. However it appears that refineries in the US have twice as much in reserve each month than they did a year ago and ethanol, while putting pressure on food prices, is alleviating demand. This isn't being seen at the petrol pump. (more)
John Barrdear : I agree, but stuff like this gives me hope.

The obvious difficulty for econometricians in the (near) future will be to identify how much of the drop in demand that you quote is due to the high price of oil or and how much because of the recession.

It appears that the Russian demand for Ukraine to pay the market price of gas has destabilised the relatively new government - as was probably intended. (more)
adam : Ukraine vs Indonesia: I wonder how relatively crucial oil is to the average Indonesian vs gas to the average Ukrainian coming into winter.  I\'m thinking \"can\'t afford to ride my scooter to work\" versus \"can\'t afford to stay warm enough to live\".
cam : Indonesia also doesnt have gas pipes: running across its\' territory that supplies western Europe. So you have to wonder if there was any strong arming going on as well from the western European nations.

cam
The cheapest oil on the planet is in Indonesia. The government subsidies it heavily, to the tune of about 3% Indonesia GDP, and approximately 30% of the Indonesia government budget. By comparison, Australia spends about 2% GDP on its military. This is a pretty massive and expensive subsidy for the Indonesia government. They have tried to remove it in the past, Suharto tried so in 1999 at the IMF's urging, but coupled with contagion, this contributed toward the Indonesian's throwing Suharto out. President Yudhoyono is going to remove the subsidy, Indonesians can expect to see petrol price rises of nearly 90%. (more)

Hartcher writes about the current pressures on oil prices around the globe in an article titled; "The pain of oil addiction hits home" . However he contradicts himself late in the article, and exposes the conundrum of oil and petrol energy, its current high prices will only make it more plentiful on the world market. We cannot use capitalism to escape oil dependency as; one, capitalism makes scarcity abundant; and two, we currently have no other option. (more)
Tuesday, Fuel excise to increase petrol price burden . From the Liberal party room in Canberra was heard a loud OMFG WTF? Wednesday, Govt scraps fuel tax plan . Who says populism isn't alive and well. (more)

This is a PDF paper from B.W. Robinson, B.J. Fleay and S.C. Mayo called, The Impact Of Oil Depletion On Australia [pdf]. It is from the "Sustainable Transport Coalition". I am not mocking them. I am sure they have good intentions, but their solutions wont be politically acceptable, wont be socially acceptable, wont be culturally acceptable and will just end up penalising those who are the most fiscally vulnerable. (more)
ranomatic : So I read the .pdf paper: You\'re right.  Although they propose several ideas for reducing consumption, they only address the short term.  No one has any sort of \"futurist\" view of the post-car culture or how to get there from here.  Lack of action now could result in a global economic collapse.
ranomatic : What does this mean?:
The singularity will be reached at 5 litres to the 100 kms.
Are you saying that\'s the best the auto industry can do?
cam : I was being sarcastic: in my best Alexei Sayle voice. But yeh pretty much. We will hit the point of no return (singularity) one Hummer at a time. We are doing nothing to make us non-oil dependent. We will hit peak oil with the throttle pressed to the floor.

cam
cam : Also: that is the Australian equivalent of miles to the gallon. Sorry.

cam
ranomatic : Mutant that I am,: as long as we use metric or US units, my mind freely converts.  All bets are off if you start using Imperial gallons :)
cam : Best comparison: IIRC Pontiac GTO gets about 20 mpg, Holden Monaro gets about 14 litres per 100 km.

cam
Cam Riley: South Sea Republic. Freedom, liberty, equity and an Australian Republic.